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Manta vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 11 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 21:30

Manta

PPG 0.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

U. Catolica

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDD

// Model verdict

Away 58% chance

Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+20.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.5%0-129.9%0-223.0%0-311.8%0-4+6.3%1 1-01.9%1-13.0%1-22.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.6%2 2-00.1%2-10.1%2-20.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.0%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.2% 23.1% 4.33 -81.8%

Draw 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

Away win 65.2% 54.3% 1.84 +20.0%

Over 2.5 35.9% 45.5% 2.20 -21.0%

Over 3.5 8.4% 23.8% 4.20 -64.7%

BTTS 0.0% 51.3% 1.95 -100.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob0.0%

A 65% / xG 0.1-1.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 0%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 29.9%

#2 0–2 23.0%

#3 0–0 19.5%

#4 0–3 11.8%

#5 0–4 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta0.1

U. Catolica1.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 8.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA · PPG 0.00

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Manta (H) 4.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -81.8%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.0%

U. Catolica (A) 65.2%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta face U. Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta a 4% chance, the draw 31% and U. Catolica 65%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.1 for Manta and 1.5 for U. Catolica (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 0% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.50 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Manta vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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