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Backa Topola vs Mladost Lucani Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 33 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 17:00

Backa Topola

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Mladost Lucani

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-17.3%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.7%1-110.9%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.1%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.0%3-14.1%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 60.2% 1.66 -18.0%

Draw 29.3% 28.6% 3.50 +2.5%

Away win 21.3% 20.4% 4.90 +4.4%

Over 2.5 44.4% 54.1% 1.85 -17.9%

Over 3.5 15.7% 32.3% 3.10 -51.3%

BTTS 48.3% 56.5% 1.77 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.3%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.7%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Backa Topola1.5

Mladost Lucani0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BACKA TOPOLA · PPG 1.31

MLADOST LUCANI · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Backa Topola (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -18.0%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.5%

Mladost Lucani (A) 21.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Backa Topola face Mladost Lucani in Serbia - Super Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Backa Topola a 49% chance, the draw 29% and Mladost Lucani 21%, so Backa Topola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Backa Topola and 0.6 for Mladost Lucani (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Backa Topola are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.75 for Mladost Lucani. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Backa Topola vs Mladost Lucani Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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