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Chaves vs Oliveirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 31 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 17:00

Chaves

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Oliveirense

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-18.4%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.0%1-111.7%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-18.2%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.8%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 62.5% 1.60 -25.1%

Draw 31.4% 27.4% 3.65 +14.6%

Away win 21.8% 19.0% 5.25 +14.4%

Over 2.5 44.4% 52.6% 1.90 -15.6%

Over 3.5 15.3% 32.3% 3.10 -52.6%

BTTS 49.5% 55.6% 1.80 -10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.6%

#5 2–1✓ 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chaves1.4

Oliveirense0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAVES · PPG 1.33

OLIVEIRENSE · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Chaves (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -25.1%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +14.6%

Oliveirense (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chaves face Oliveirense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chaves a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Oliveirense 22%, so Chaves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Chaves and 0.7 for Oliveirense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chaves are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.60 for Oliveirense. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Chaves vs Oliveirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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