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FC Kobenhavn vs Vejle BK Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group · Matchday 29 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 17:00

FC Kobenhavn

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vejle BK

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.2%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.1%1-16.2%1-23.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.1%2-18.6%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.7%3-18.0%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-111.1%4+-26.7%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 82.0% 1.22 -30.1%

Draw 21.3% 17.4% 5.75 +22.5%

Away win 21.4% 7.7% 13.00 +178.2%

Over 2.5 61.2% 69.0% 1.45 -11.3%

Over 3.5 56.7% 47.6% 2.10 +19.1%

BTTS 58.5% 54.6% 1.83 +7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 57% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–1 6.2%

#5 3–0✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Kobenhavn2.8

Vejle BK1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 56.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KOBENHAVN · PPG 1.36

VEJLE BK · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

67%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs P(Home)=57.3%

Win probability 1X2

FC Kobenhavn (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -30.1%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +22.5%

Vejle BK (A) 21.4%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +178.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Kobenhavn face Vejle BK in Denmark - Superliga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Kobenhavn a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Vejle BK 21%, so FC Kobenhavn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for FC Kobenhavn and 1.2 for Vejle BK (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Kobenhavn are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.38 for Vejle BK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +178.2%. This match finished 3-0.

FC Kobenhavn vs Vejle BK Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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