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AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia S. Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Regular Season - 33 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 17:00

AF Elbasani

PPG 2.06 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Vllaznia S.

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-110.5%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.2%1-111.9%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.5%2-16.8%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.6%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 38.2% 2.62 +18.7%

Draw 30.4% 34.7% 2.88 -12.4%

Away win 24.4% 38.5% 2.60 -36.6%

Over 2.5 37.9% 40.0% 2.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 9.7% — — —

BTTS 40.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -61.7%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob40.2%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.8%

#2 1–0 20.2%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AF Elbasani1.1

Vllaznia S.0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 9.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AF ELBASANI · PPG 2.06

VLLAZNIA S. · PPG 1.19

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=45.3%

Win probability 1X2

AF Elbasani (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +18.7%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -12.4%

Vllaznia S. (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -36.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AF Elbasani face Vllaznia S. in Albania - Superliga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AF Elbasani a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Vllaznia S. 24%, so AF Elbasani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for AF Elbasani and 0.6 for Vllaznia S. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AF Elbasani are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.19 for Vllaznia S.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 3-1.

AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia S. Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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