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AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia S. Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Albania - Superliga logo Albania flag Albania - Superliga Regular Season - 33 Elbasan Arena· Elbasani Monday, April 27, 2026 17:00
AF Elbasani logo AF Elbasani PPG 2.06
3-1 MISS
Vllaznia S. logo Vllaznia S. PPG 1.19
Home· +18.7% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

AF Elbasani face Vllaznia S. in Albania - Superliga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AF Elbasani a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Vllaznia S. 24%, so AF Elbasani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for AF Elbasani and 0.6 for Vllaznia S. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AF Elbasani are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.19 for Vllaznia S.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.3%
Odds: 2.62 EV: +18.7%
Draw 30.4%
Odds: 2.88 EV: -12.4%
Away 24.4%
Odds: 2.60 EV: -36.6%
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.9% Odds: 2.50 -5.3%
Over 3.5 9.7% Odds: —
BTTS 40.2% Odds: —
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 1-1
4th 2-0
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

AF Elbasani
1.14
Vllaznia S.
0.59

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%
O2.5/Under 40%
BTTS/No 48%
Score Hit 40%
ROI -61.7%
Bet Hit 17% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=45.3%

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org