Al Sadd vs Al Shamal Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Qatar - Stars League Regular Season - 22 Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium· Doha Monday, April 27, 2026 16:30

Al Sadd PPG 1.70

3-2 MISS

Al Shamal PPG 1.90

Away· +36.8% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Sadd face Al Shamal in Qatar - Stars League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Sadd a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Al Shamal 31%, so Al Sadd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Sadd and 1.7 for Al Shamal (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Sadd are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.90 for Al Shamal. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.6%

Odds: 1.59 EV: -38.6%

Draw 30.3%

Odds: 4.30 EV: +30.3%

Away 31.1%

Odds: 4.40 EV: +36.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.38 -16.5%

Over 3.5 46.6% Odds: 1.95 -9.1%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.42 -16.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Sadd

1.84

Al Shamal

1.68

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -16.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -16.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+36.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.70), Away GOOD (1.90)