Today / Qatar - Stars League / Al Sadd vs Al Shamal

Al Sadd vs Al Shamal Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:30

Al Sadd

PPG 1.70 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Shamal

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.0%0-24.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.5%1-19.2%1-27.7%1-34.3%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.1%3-15.2%3-24.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.6%4+-23.0%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 62.9% 1.59 -38.6%

Draw 30.3% 23.3% 4.30 +30.3%

Away win 31.1% 22.7% 4.40 +36.8%

Over 2.5 60.5% 72.5% 1.38 -16.5%

Over 3.5 46.6% 51.3% 1.95 -9.1%

BTTS 58.5% 70.4% 1.42 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 83%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Sadd1.8

Al Shamal1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SADD · PPG 1.70

AL SHAMAL · PPG 1.90

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.70), Away GOOD (1.90)

Win probability 1X2

Al Sadd (H) 38.6%

ODDS 1.59 · IMPLIED 62.9% EV -38.6%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +30.3%

Al Shamal (A) 31.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +36.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Sadd face Al Shamal in Qatar - Stars League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Sadd a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Al Shamal 31%, so Al Sadd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Sadd and 1.7 for Al Shamal (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Sadd are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.90 for Al Shamal. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Al Sadd vs Al Shamal Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Qatar - Stars League Predictions