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Al-Duhail SC vs Al-Arabi SC Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:15

Al-Duhail SC

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al-Arabi SC

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

DD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.4%0-24.5%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.7%1-110.8%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.7%3-15.1%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 54.1% 1.85 -18.0%

Draw 26.6% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

Away win 29.0% 29.4% 3.40 -0.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 65.4% 1.53 -18.1%

Over 3.5 34.6% 45.5% 2.20 -23.9%

BTTS 54.8% 65.4% 1.53 -16.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 61.7% 1.62 -20.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 40.0% 2.50 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 88%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.8%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Duhail SC1.7

Al-Arabi SC1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-DUHAIL SC · PPG 1.72

AL-ARABI SC · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Duhail SC (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -18.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.1%

Al-Arabi SC (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Duhail SC face Al-Arabi SC in Qatar - Stars League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Duhail SC a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Al-Arabi SC 29%, so Al-Duhail SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al-Duhail SC and 1.4 for Al-Arabi SC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Duhail SC are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.53 for Al-Arabi SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Al-Duhail SC vs Al-Arabi SC Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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