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Qatar SC vs Al Sadd Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:30

Qatar SC

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

2 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Sadd

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.1%0-25.7%0-34.3%0-4+4.0%1 1-03.5%1-17.9%1-28.8%1-36.6%1-4+6.2%2 2-02.7%2-16.1%2-26.8%2-35.1%2-4+4.8%3 3-01.4%3-13.1%3-23.5%3-32.6%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 16.9% 5.90 +41.9%

Draw 23.3% 21.3% 4.70 +5.7%

Away win 47.8% 70.4% 1.42 -32.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 75.2% 1.33 -16.1%

Over 3.5 43.2% 55.6% 1.80 -22.2%

BTTS 61.1% 70.4% 1.42 -13.2%

Home O1.5 43.7% 37.7% 2.65 +15.8%

Away O1.5 67.1% 76.9% 1.30 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 88%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-6

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.1%

A 48% / xG 1.5-2.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.1%

#5 1–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qatar SC1.5

Al Sadd2.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

QATAR SC · PPG 1.53

AL SADD · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.69 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Qatar SC (H) 28.8%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +41.9%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +5.7%

Al Sadd (A) 47.8%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -32.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qatar SC face Al Sadd in Qatar - Stars League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qatar SC a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Al Sadd 48%, so Al Sadd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Qatar SC and 2.2 for Al Sadd (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qatar SC are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 2.00 for Al Sadd. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.6%. This match finished 2-6.

Qatar SC vs Al Sadd Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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