Today / Qatar - Stars League / Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC

Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Matchday 3 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 14:00

Al Ahli Doha

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

UPCOMING

Qatar SC

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.4%0-24.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.6%1-18.4%1-27.6%1-34.6%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.8%3-15.1%3-24.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.7%4+-23.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

Draw 21.1% 30.8% 3.25 -18.9%

Away win 35.2% 36.4% 2.75 -3.2%

Over 2.5 68.4% 64.9% 1.54 +5.3%

Over 3.5 45.0% 43.9% 2.28 +2.6%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 53.8% 1.86 +3.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 47.4% 2.11 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 88%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahli Doha1.9

Qatar SC1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLI DOHA · PPG 1.15

QATAR SC · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahli Doha (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -1.7%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -18.9%

Qatar SC (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli Doha face Qatar SC in Qatar - Stars League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli Doha a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Qatar SC 35%, so Al Ahli Doha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al Ahli Doha and 1.8 for Qatar SC (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli Doha are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.34 for Qatar SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.8%.

Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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