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Lusail City vs Al Wakrah Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:15

Lusail City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

UPCOMING

Al Wakrah

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.4%0-24.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.8%1-19.6%1-27.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.0%3-15.0%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.3%4+-22.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 22.2% 4.50 +88.5%

Draw 23.3% 25.0% 4.00 -4.1%

Away win 34.8% 63.7% 1.57 -45.4%

Over 2.5 62.8% 65.4% 1.53 -3.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 44.4% 2.25 -9.6%

BTTS 62.3% 65.4% 1.53 -4.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 36.2% 2.76 +37.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 64.1% 1.56 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.3%

H 42% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lusail City1.8

Al Wakrah1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LUSAIL CITY · PPG 1.50

AL WAKRAH · PPG 1.35

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lusail City (H) 41.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +88.5%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.1%

Al Wakrah (A) 34.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -45.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lusail City face Al Wakrah in Qatar - Stars League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lusail City a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Al Wakrah 35%, so Lusail City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lusail City and 1.6 for Al Wakrah (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lusail City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.35 for Al Wakrah. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +78.8%.

Lusail City vs Al Wakrah Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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