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Al Shamal vs Al Shahaniya Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 14:00

Al Shamal

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Al Shahaniya

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.1%0-23.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.8%1-19.7%1-26.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.1%3-15.9%3-24.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.4%4+-23.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 53.8% 1.86 -13.1%

Draw 23.9% 27.0% 3.70 -6.9%

Away win 29.4% 28.2% 3.55 +2.6%

Over 2.5 63.0% 61.7% 1.62 +2.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 39.2% 2.55 +2.5%

BTTS 61.5% 65.4% 1.53 -5.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 57.8% 1.73 -3.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 39.2% 2.55 +7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 88%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shamal1.9

Al Shahaniya1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHAMAL · PPG 1.59

AL SHAHANIYA · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Shamal (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.86 · IMPLIED 53.8% EV -13.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.9%

Al Shahaniya (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shamal face Al Shahaniya in Qatar - Stars League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shamal a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Al Shahaniya 29%, so Al Shamal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al Shamal and 1.4 for Al Shahaniya (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shamal are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.83 for Al Shahaniya. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.6%.

Al Shamal vs Al Shahaniya Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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