Today / Macva Sabac vs Vrsac

Macva Sabac vs Vrsac Prediction

Monday, April 27, 2026

Macva Sabac

PPG 2.44 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vrsac

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=54.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-16.0%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.7%1-19.9%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.5%3-14.5%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-12.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% — — —

Draw 28.9% — — —

Away win 16.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 17.6% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.7%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 9.9%

#5 3–0✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macva Sabac1.6

Vrsac0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MACVA SABAC · PPG 2.44

VRSAC · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=54.7%

Win probability 1X2

Macva Sabac (H) 54.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vrsac (A) 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Macva Sabac face Vrsac on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macva Sabac a 55% chance, the draw 29% and Vrsac 16%, so Macva Sabac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Macva Sabac and 0.5 for Vrsac (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macva Sabac are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.19 for Vrsac. This match finished 3-0.

Macva Sabac vs Vrsac Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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