Today / Iraq - Iraqi League / Al Ramtha vs Sama Al Sarhan

Al Ramtha vs Sama Al Sarhan Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:00

Al Ramtha

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sama Al Sarhan

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 39.2% — a clear edge.

+68.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-13.3%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.1%1-16.9%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.0%2-17.3%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.6%3-15.1%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-14.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 39.2% 2.55 +68.3%

Draw 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -26.8%

Away win 9.6% 39.2% 2.55 -75.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 42.6% 2.35 +17.5%

Over 3.5 24.6% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 66% / xG 2.1-0.4 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 18.0%

#2 1–0 17.1%

#3 3–0 12.6%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ramtha2.1

Sama Al Sarhan0.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RAMTHA · PPG 1.67

SAMA AL SARHAN · PPG 0.27

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.27) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Ramtha (H) 66.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +68.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -26.8%

Sama Al Sarhan (A) 9.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -75.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ramtha face Sama Al Sarhan in Iraq - Iraqi League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ramtha a 66% chance, the draw 24% and Sama Al Sarhan 10%, so Al Ramtha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Al Ramtha and 0.4 for Sama Al Sarhan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ramtha are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.27 for Sama Al Sarhan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +68.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Al Ramtha vs Sama Al Sarhan Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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