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Smouha vs Al Masry Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Championship Group - 4 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:00

Smouha

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Al Masry

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-19.3%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.4%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-18.3%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.0%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 32.8% 3.05 +38.2%

Draw 30.4% 35.5% 2.82 -14.3%

Away win 24.4% 41.0% 2.44 -40.5%

Over 2.5 44.4% 38.5% 2.60 +15.4%

Over 3.5 15.6% 20.0% 5.00 -22.0%

BTTS 49.5% 48.8% 2.05 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smouha1.3

Al Masry0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SMOUHA · PPG 1.50

AL MASRY · PPG 1.09

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

Smouha (H) 45.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +38.2%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -14.3%

Al Masry (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -40.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Smouha face Al Masry in Egypt - Premier League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smouha a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Al Masry 24%, so Smouha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Smouha and 0.7 for Al Masry (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smouha are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.09 for Al Masry. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Smouha vs Al Masry Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions