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Episentr vs Oleksandria Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 25 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 10:00

Episentr

PPG 0.92 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Oleksandria

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.6%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.2%1-110.4%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-16.0%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 48.8% 2.05 +1.9%

Draw 28.5% 31.3% 3.20 -8.8%

Away win 21.8% 30.3% 3.30 -28.1%

Over 2.5 50.7% 47.6% 2.10 +6.5%

Over 3.5 27.4% 26.0% 3.85 +5.5%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1✓ 10.4%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Episentr1.9

Oleksandria0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EPISENTR · PPG 0.92

OLEKSANDRIA · PPG 0.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.92) > Away POOR (0.42)

Win probability 1X2

Episentr (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +1.9%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.8%

Oleksandria (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Episentr face Oleksandria in Ukraine - Premier League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Episentr a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Oleksandria 22%, so Episentr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Episentr and 0.8 for Oleksandria (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Episentr are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 0.42 for Oleksandria. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Episentr vs Oleksandria Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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