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Imst vs Saalfelden Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 25 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

Imst

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Saalfelden

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.4%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-110.9%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.2%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% 69.4% 1.44 -12.3%

Draw 23.6% 22.2% 4.50 +6.2%

Away win 15.5% 19.0% 5.25 -18.6%

Over 2.5 43.4% 65.4% 1.53 -33.6%

Over 3.5 22.4% — — —

BTTS 41.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.8%

H 61% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 2–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 0–0✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Imst1.7

Saalfelden0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IMST · PPG 1.50

SAALFELDEN · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Imst (H) 60.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -12.3%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +6.2%

Saalfelden (A) 15.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Imst face Saalfelden in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Imst a 61% chance, the draw 24% and Saalfelden 16%, so Imst are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Imst and 0.7 for Saalfelden (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Imst are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.82 for Saalfelden. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Imst vs Saalfelden Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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