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IMT N. Beograd vs Radnicki Nis Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 33 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 15:00

IMT N. Beograd

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Radnicki Nis

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.8%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.7%1-111.9%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.1%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.8%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 54.3% 1.84 -26.4%

Draw 30.2% 29.4% 3.40 +2.7%

Away win 29.9% 25.3% 3.95 +18.1%

Over 2.5 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Over 3.5 29.8% 29.4% 3.40 +1.3%

BTTS 58.5% 56.5% 1.77 +3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 2–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IMT N. Beograd1.5

Radnicki Nis1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IMT N. BEOGRAD · PPG 1.44

RADNICKI NIS · PPG 0.63

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=40.0%

Win probability 1X2

IMT N. Beograd (H) 40.0%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -26.4%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +2.7%

Radnicki Nis (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

IMT N. Beograd face Radnicki Nis in Serbia - Super Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IMT N. Beograd a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Radnicki Nis 30%, so IMT N. Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for IMT N. Beograd and 1.2 for Radnicki Nis (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IMT N. Beograd are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.63 for Radnicki Nis. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 2-0.

IMT N. Beograd vs Radnicki Nis Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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