Today / Qatar - Stars League / Umm Salal vs Al Ahli Doha

Umm Salal vs Al Ahli Doha Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:15

Umm Salal

PPG 1.10 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Ahli Doha

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+24.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.3%0-23.3%0-33.2%0-4+4.8%1 1-01.5%1-14.4%1-26.5%1-36.2%1-4+9.2%2 2-01.5%2-14.3%2-26.3%2-36.0%2-4+8.9%3 3-01.0%3-12.8%3-24.0%3-33.9%3-4+5.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-12.1%4+-23.1%4+-32.9%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% 41.3% 2.42 -32.7%

Draw 23.1% 28.6% 3.50 -19.1%

Away win 49.1% 39.4% 2.54 +24.7%

Over 2.5 79.5% 63.7% 1.57 +24.8%

Over 3.5 71.2% 40.8% 2.45 +74.4%

BTTS 65.5% 69.0% 1.45 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 83%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob65.5%

A 49% / xG 1.9-2.9 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 6.5%

#2 2–2 6.3%

#3 1–3✓ 6.2%

#4 2–3 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umm Salal1.9

Al Ahli Doha2.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 71.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UMM SALAL · PPG 1.10

AL AHLI DOHA · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.10), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Umm Salal (H) 27.8%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -32.7%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -19.1%

Al Ahli Doha (A) 49.1%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Umm Salal face Al Ahli Doha in Qatar - Stars League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umm Salal a 28% chance, the draw 23% and Al Ahli Doha 49%, so Al Ahli Doha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Umm Salal and 2.9 for Al Ahli Doha (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umm Salal are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.20 for Al Ahli Doha. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +74.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Umm Salal vs Al Ahli Doha Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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