Umm Salal vs Al Ahli Doha Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Qatar - Stars League Regular Season - 22 Thani bin Jassim Stadium· Doha Monday, April 27, 2026 14:15

Umm Salal PPG 1.10

1-3 HIT CS3

Al Ahli Doha PPG 1.20

Over3.5· +74.4% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Umm Salal face Al Ahli Doha in Qatar - Stars League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umm Salal a 28% chance, the draw 23% and Al Ahli Doha 49%, so Al Ahli Doha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Umm Salal and 2.9 for Al Ahli Doha (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umm Salal are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.20 for Al Ahli Doha. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +74.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 27.8%

Odds: 2.42 EV: -32.7%

Draw 23.1%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -19.1%

Away 49.1%

Odds: 2.54 EV: +24.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 79.5% Odds: 1.57 +24.8%

Over 3.5 71.2% Odds: 2.45 +74.4%

BTTS 65.5% Odds: 1.45 -5.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 2-2 ✘

3rd 1-3 ✔

4th 2-3 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Umm Salal

1.94

Al Ahli Doha

2.90

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +24.8% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+74.4%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.10), Away AVERAGE (1.20)