Today / Qatar - Stars League / Al Wakrah vs Al Sailiya

Al Wakrah vs Al Sailiya Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:15

Al Wakrah

PPG 1.30 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Sailiya

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.4%0-25.0%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.5%1-111.5%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.9%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.4%3-14.6%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 45.9% 2.18 -15.0%

Draw 30.7% 29.4% 3.40 +4.4%

Away win 30.4% 34.0% 2.94 -10.6%

Over 2.5 59.0% 61.7% 1.62 -4.4%

Over 3.5 33.0% 39.2% 2.55 -15.8%

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 83%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

D 31% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Wakrah1.5

Al Sailiya1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL WAKRAH · PPG 1.30

AL SAILIYA · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.30) > Away POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

Al Wakrah (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -15.0%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.4%

Al Sailiya (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Wakrah face Al Sailiya in Qatar - Stars League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Wakrah a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Al Sailiya 30%, so Al Wakrah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Wakrah and 1.3 for Al Sailiya (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Wakrah are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.90 for Al Sailiya. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Al Wakrah vs Al Sailiya Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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