Today / Qatar - Stars League / Al Rayyan vs Al Arabi

Al Rayyan vs Al Arabi Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:15

Al Rayyan

PPG 1.70 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Arabi

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.8%0-23.8%0-32.6%0-4+2.1%1 1-03.7%1-17.4%1-27.5%1-35.0%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.6%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.4%3-14.7%3-24.8%3-33.2%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.6%4+-23.7%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 54.9% 1.82 -31.6%

Draw 29.6% 25.3% 3.95 +16.9%

Away win 32.9% 28.6% 3.50 +15.2%

Over 2.5 61.1% 73.5% 1.36 -16.9%

Over 3.5 56.1% 52.6% 1.90 +6.6%

BTTS 58.5% 75.2% 1.33 -22.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 83%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 2.0-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Rayyan2.0

Al Arabi2.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RAYYAN · PPG 1.70

AL ARABI · PPG 1.70

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.70), Away GOOD (1.70)

Win probability 1X2

Al Rayyan (H) 37.6%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -31.6%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +16.9%

Al Arabi (A) 32.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Rayyan face Al Arabi in Qatar - Stars League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Rayyan a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Al Arabi 33%, so Al Rayyan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al Rayyan and 2.0 for Al Arabi (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Rayyan are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.70 for Al Arabi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Al Rayyan vs Al Arabi Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Qatar - Stars League Predictions