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Celta Vigo B vs Cacereno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Celta Vigo B

PPG 1.94 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cacereno

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.6%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.0%1-111.9%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.3%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 56.5% 1.77 -18.6%

Draw 25.1% 29.4% 3.40 -14.7%

Away win 28.9% 24.4% 4.10 +18.5%

Over 2.5 51.7% 51.8% 1.93 -0.2%

Over 3.5 29.6% 30.3% 3.30 -2.3%

BTTS 54.8% 55.6% 1.80 -1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.8%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celta Vigo B1.6

Cacereno1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTA VIGO B · PPG 1.94

CACERENO · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.94) vs P(Home)=46.0%

Win probability 1X2

Celta Vigo B (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -18.6%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.7%

Cacereno (A) 28.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celta Vigo B face Cacereno in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celta Vigo B a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Cacereno 29%, so Celta Vigo B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Celta Vigo B and 1.2 for Cacereno (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celta Vigo B are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.06 for Cacereno. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Celta Vigo B vs Cacereno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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