Today / Bali Utd vs PSM

Bali Utd vs PSM Prediction

Monday, April 27, 2026

Bali Utd

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

PSM

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.6%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.9%1-19.5%1-25.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.6%3-16.7%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 28.4% — — —

Away win 25.2% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 41.0% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.1%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bali Utd2.1

PSM1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BALI UTD · PPG 1.29

PSM · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Bali Utd (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

PSM (A) 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bali Utd face PSM on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bali Utd a 46% chance, the draw 28% and PSM 25%, so Bali Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Bali Utd and 1.2 for PSM (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bali Utd are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.14 for PSM. This match finished 2-0.

Bali Utd vs PSM Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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