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Orense vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 23:10

Orense

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Barcelona SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.3%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-111.8%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.6%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.2%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 39.1% 2.56 +18.5%

Draw 28.3% 31.7% 3.15 -10.9%

Away win 25.4% 36.5% 2.74 -30.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 45.5% 2.20 +11.1%

Over 3.5 26.5% 23.8% 4.20 +11.3%

BTTS 52.7% 54.6% 1.83 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orense1.6

Barcelona SC1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENSE · PPG 1.60

BARCELONA SC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Orense (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +18.5%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -10.9%

Barcelona SC (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orense face Barcelona SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orense a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Barcelona SC 25%, so Orense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Orense and 1.0 for Barcelona SC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orense are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Barcelona SC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Orense vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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