Today / Metropolitanos vs E. Merida

Metropolitanos vs E. Merida Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Metropolitanos

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

E. Merida

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.5%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 25.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0✓ 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metropolitanos1.6

E. Merida1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

METROPOLITANOS · PPG 2.00

E. MERIDA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Metropolitanos (H) 46.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

E. Merida (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Metropolitanos face E. Merida on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metropolitanos a 46% chance, the draw 28% and E. Merida 25%, so Metropolitanos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Metropolitanos and 1.0 for E. Merida (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metropolitanos are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for E. Merida. This match finished 2-0.

Metropolitanos vs E. Merida Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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