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Western Utd B vs Melbourne K. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 04:00

Western Utd B

PPG 1.20 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Melbourne K.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-19.0%0-211.8%0-310.4%0-4+12.8%1 1-02.6%1-16.7%1-28.8%1-37.7%1-4+9.5%2 2-01.0%2-12.5%2-23.3%2-32.9%2-4+3.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.8% 23.8% 4.20 -37.8%

Draw 22.3% 22.2% 4.50 +0.4%

Away win 62.9% 65.4% 1.53 -3.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 73.5% 1.36 -18.8%

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob52.6%

A 63% / xG 0.7-2.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.8%

#2 0–3 10.4%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Western Utd B0.7

Melbourne K.2.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTERN UTD B · PPG 1.20

MELBOURNE K. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Western Utd B (H) 14.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -37.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +0.4%

Melbourne K. (A) 62.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Western Utd B face Melbourne K. in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Western Utd B a 15% chance, the draw 22% and Melbourne K. 63%, so Melbourne K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Western Utd B and 2.6 for Melbourne K. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Western Utd B are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.50 for Melbourne K.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Western Utd B vs Melbourne K. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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