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Guayaquil City vs Tecnico U. Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 20:30

Guayaquil City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Tecnico U.

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.1%0-19.6%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.6%1-110.8%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-16.1%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.8%3-12.3%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 46.7% 2.14 +0.1%

Draw 31.4% 31.3% 3.20 +0.5%

Away win 21.8% 29.0% 3.45 -24.8%

Over 2.5 35.9% 40.8% 2.45 -12.0%

Over 3.5 8.0% 21.1% 4.75 -62.0%

BTTS 39.6% 48.8% 2.05 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.1%

#2 1–0✓ 22.6%

#3 2–0 12.8%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guayaquil City1.1

Tecnico U.0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 8.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GUAYAQUIL CITY · PPG 1.50

TECNICO U. · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

47%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Guayaquil City (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +0.1%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.5%

Tecnico U. (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guayaquil City face Tecnico U. in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guayaquil City a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Tecnico U. 22%, so Guayaquil City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Guayaquil City and 0.5 for Tecnico U. (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guayaquil City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.40 for Tecnico U.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Guayaquil City vs Tecnico U. Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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