Today / Ceuta vs Racing

Ceuta vs Racing Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Ceuta

PPG 2.06 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Racing

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.1%0-24.2%0-32.9%0-4+2.5%1 1-03.6%1-17.5%1-27.8%1-35.4%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.4%2-17.0%2-27.3%2-35.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-02.1%3-14.3%3-24.5%3-33.1%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.1%4+-23.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% — — —

Draw 27.9% — — —

Away win 37.1% — — —

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 55.3% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob58.5%

A 37% / xG 1.9-2.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceuta1.9

Racing2.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 55.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CEUTA · PPG 2.06

RACING · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Ceuta (H) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Racing (A) 37.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceuta face Racing on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceuta a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Racing 37%, so Racing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ceuta and 2.1 for Racing (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceuta are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.67 for Racing. This match finished 0-0.

Ceuta vs Racing Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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