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Cerro Largo vs Racing CM Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 13 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:30

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Racing CM

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-113.0%0-29.7%0-34.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-03.9%2-15.8%2-24.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 26.3% 3.80 +6.8%

Draw 31.4% 32.3% 3.10 -2.7%

Away win 40.5% 50.5% 1.98 -19.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 42.6% 2.35 +17.5%

Over 3.5 23.0% 22.2% 4.50 +3.5%

BTTS 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 40% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1✓ 13.0%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Largo0.9

Racing CM1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.40

RACING CM · PPG 2.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Largo (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.8%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.7%

Racing CM (A) 40.5%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Largo face Racing CM in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Largo a 28% chance, the draw 31% and Racing CM 41%, so Racing CM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Cerro Largo and 1.5 for Racing CM (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Largo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.60 for Racing CM. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Cerro Largo vs Racing CM Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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