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Racing Ferrol vs Real Aviles Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:30

Racing Ferrol

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Real Aviles

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+20.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.5%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.6%1-19.3%1-25.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.5%3-16.7%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.7%4+-23.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 54.6% 1.83 -15.1%

Draw 28.3% 31.3% 3.20 -9.4%

Away win 25.3% 24.4% 4.10 +3.7%

Over 2.5 59.0% 48.8% 2.05 +20.9%

Over 3.5 42.3% 27.4% 3.65 +54.4%

BTTS 58.5% 54.6% 1.83 +7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Ferrol2.1

Real Aviles1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING FERROL · PPG 1.63

REAL AVILES · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Racing Ferrol (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -15.1%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.4%

Real Aviles (A) 25.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Ferrol face Real Aviles in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Ferrol a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Real Aviles 25%, so Racing Ferrol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Racing Ferrol and 1.2 for Real Aviles (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Ferrol are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.31 for Real Aviles. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +54.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Racing Ferrol vs Real Aviles Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions