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Arsenal Sarandi vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:30

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Villa Dalmine

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.2%0-111.4%0-22.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.7%1-19.4%1-21.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.1%2-13.8%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.8%3-11.0%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% — — —

Draw 40.1% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 24.2% — — —

Over 3.5 3.4% — — —

BTTS 29.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob29.7%

H 38% / xG 0.8-0.4 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.2%

#2 1–0 24.7%

#3 1–1✓ 9.4%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 0–1 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Sarandi0.8

Villa Dalmine0.4

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.2% · O3.5 PROB 3.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 2.40

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Sarandi (H) 37.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 40.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Villa Dalmine (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Sarandi face Villa Dalmine in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Sarandi a 38% chance, the draw 40% and Villa Dalmine 22%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Arsenal Sarandi and 0.4 for Villa Dalmine (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Sarandi are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 3.00 for Villa Dalmine. This match finished 1-1.

Arsenal Sarandi vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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