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Macara vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:00

Macara

PPG 1.60 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Libertad

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-16.6%0-21.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.3%1-19.8%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.8%2-17.2%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.8%3-13.6%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-11.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 50.0% 2.00 +5.4%

Draw 30.2% 31.7% 3.15 -4.9%

Away win 17.1% 25.6% 3.90 -33.3%

Over 2.5 38.0% 44.4% 2.25 -14.5%

Over 3.5 13.2% 23.8% 4.20 -44.6%

BTTS 39.6% 51.8% 1.93 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.3%

#2 0–0 14.4%

#3 2–0 15.8%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 3–0✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara1.5

Libertad0.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.60

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=52.7%

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.4%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -4.9%

Libertad (A) 17.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face Libertad in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 53% chance, the draw 30% and Libertad 17%, so Macara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Macara and 0.5 for Libertad (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.40 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Macara vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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