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AGF Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group · Matchday 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:00

AGF Aarhus

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FC Midtjylland

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 56% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.0%0-26.8%0-33.9%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.3%1-110.8%1-29.2%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.3%2-26.3%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.9%3-13.3%3-22.8%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 40.8% 2.45 -16.0%

Draw 28.2% 30.8% 3.25 -8.3%

Away win 37.5% 35.1% 2.85 +6.9%

Over 2.5 59.0% 54.6% 1.83 +8.0%

Over 3.5 36.7% 33.3% 3.00 +10.1%

BTTS 58.5% 62.5% 1.60 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

D 28% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2 6.8%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AGF Aarhus1.4

FC Midtjylland1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AGF AARHUS · PPG 2.08

FC MIDTJYLLAND · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.08), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

AGF Aarhus (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.0%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.3%

FC Midtjylland (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

AGF Aarhus face FC Midtjylland in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AGF Aarhus a 34% chance, the draw 28% and FC Midtjylland 38%, so FC Midtjylland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for AGF Aarhus and 1.7 for FC Midtjylland (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AGF Aarhus are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 2.00 for FC Midtjylland. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 0-0.

AGF Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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