Today / I. Rivadavia vs G. Mendoza

I. Rivadavia vs G. Mendoza Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

I. Rivadavia

PPG 2.00 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

G. Mendoza

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-11.9%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.0%1-15.1%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.2%2-17.0%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.0%3-16.5%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-018.8%4+-18.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.3% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 7.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 71% / xG 2.8-0.5 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.2%

#2 3–0 14.0%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 4–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

I. Rivadavia2.8

G. Mendoza0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

I. RIVADAVIA · PPG 2.00

G. MENDOZA · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

I. Rivadavia (H) 71.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

G. Mendoza (A) 7.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

I. Rivadavia face G. Mendoza on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives I. Rivadavia a 71% chance, the draw 21% and G. Mendoza 8%, so I. Rivadavia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for I. Rivadavia and 0.5 for G. Mendoza (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, I. Rivadavia are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.86 for G. Mendoza. This match finished 5-1.

I. Rivadavia vs G. Mendoza Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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