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Benfica B vs Maritimo Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:00

Benfica B

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Maritimo

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-113.7%0-29.0%0-34.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.6%2-16.1%2-24.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.5%3-11.9%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 30.8% 3.25 -7.4%

Draw 32.3% 30.8% 3.25 +5.0%

Away win 39.2% 47.6% 2.10 -17.7%

Over 2.5 47.5% 51.8% 1.93 -8.3%

Over 3.5 19.4% 29.9% 3.35 -35.0%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 39% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 0–1 13.7%

#4 0–2 9.0%

#5 1–2✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benfica B0.9

Maritimo1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BENFICA B · PPG 1.67

MARITIMO · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Benfica B (H) 28.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.4%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +5.0%

Maritimo (A) 39.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benfica B face Maritimo in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benfica B a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Maritimo 39%, so Maritimo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Benfica B and 1.3 for Maritimo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benfica B are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.13 for Maritimo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Benfica B vs Maritimo Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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