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Egnatia R. vs Vora Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:00

Egnatia R.

PPG 1.81 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Vora

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-14.6%0-21.0%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.2%1-18.3%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.4%2-17.5%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.6%3-14.5%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-13.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% 69.4% 1.44 -16.1%

Draw 28.6% 29.4% 3.40 -2.8%

Away win 13.2% 12.5% 8.00 +5.6%

Over 2.5 44.4% 44.4% 2.25 -0.1%

Over 3.5 19.0% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -61.7%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.4 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 2–0 17.4%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 3–0 10.6%

#5 1–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Egnatia R.1.8

Vora0.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EGNATIA R. · PPG 1.81

VORA · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=58.3%

Win probability 1X2

Egnatia R. (H) 58.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -16.1%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.8%

Vora (A) 13.2%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Egnatia R. face Vora in Albania - Superliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Egnatia R. a 58% chance, the draw 29% and Vora 13%, so Egnatia R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Egnatia R. and 0.4 for Vora (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Egnatia R. are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.81 for Vora. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Egnatia R. vs Vora Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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