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Unionistas vs Athletic B. B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:15

Unionistas

PPG 1.81 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Athletic B. B

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.6%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.5%1-110.5%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-16.1%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 43.5% 2.30 +14.3%

Draw 28.5% 32.3% 3.10 -11.7%

Away win 21.8% 33.9% 2.95 -35.7%

Over 2.5 51.6% 45.5% 2.20 +13.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +20.5%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.5%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unionistas1.9

Athletic B. B0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIONISTAS · PPG 1.81

ATHLETIC B. B · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Unionistas (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +14.3%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.7%

Athletic B. B (A) 21.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -35.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unionistas face Athletic B. B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unionistas a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Athletic B. B 22%, so Unionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Unionistas and 0.8 for Athletic B. B (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unionistas are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.13 for Athletic B. B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Unionistas vs Athletic B. B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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