Today / Bolnisi vs Aragvi Dusheti

Bolnisi vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Bolnisi

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-11.5%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.5%1-14.4%1-21.0%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.2%2-16.6%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.1%3-16.5%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-021.8%4+-110.2%4+-22.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.7% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 7.2% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 45.1% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 72% / xG 3.0-0.5 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 3–0 14.1%

#3 4–0 10.5%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolnisi3.0

Aragvi Dusheti0.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLNISI · PPG 1.75

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bolnisi (H) 71.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aragvi Dusheti (A) 7.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolnisi face Aragvi Dusheti on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolnisi a 72% chance, the draw 21% and Aragvi Dusheti 7%, so Bolnisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Bolnisi and 0.5 for Aragvi Dusheti (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolnisi are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Aragvi Dusheti. This match finished 1-1.

Bolnisi vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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