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Viborg vs Nordsjaelland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group · Matchday 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Viborg

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Nordsjaelland

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.0%0-24.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.3%1-19.1%1-27.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.9%3-15.0%3-24.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 43.5% 2.30 -13.5%

Draw 29.6% 27.4% 3.65 +8.0%

Away win 32.9% 35.7% 2.80 -7.9%

Over 2.5 60.5% 65.4% 1.53 -7.4%

Over 3.5 46.9% 43.5% 2.30 +7.9%

BTTS 58.5% 69.4% 1.44 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viborg1.8

Nordsjaelland1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VIBORG · PPG 1.43

NORDSJAELLAND · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Viborg (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -13.5%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +8.0%

Nordsjaelland (A) 32.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viborg face Nordsjaelland in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viborg a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Nordsjaelland 33%, so Viborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Viborg and 1.7 for Nordsjaelland (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viborg are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.23 for Nordsjaelland. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Viborg vs Nordsjaelland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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