Today / D. Armenio vs SM Burzaco

D. Armenio vs SM Burzaco Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

D. Armenio

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

SM Burzaco

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-113.9%0-27.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.8%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.7%2-16.5%2-23.7%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.1%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% — — —

Draw 32.1% — — —

Away win 32.5% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 16.1% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.5%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 0–1 13.9%

#4 1–0 11.8%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Armenio1.0

SM Burzaco1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

D. ARMENIO · PPG 1.50

SM BURZACO · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

D. Armenio (H) 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SM Burzaco (A) 32.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Armenio face SM Burzaco on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Armenio a 36% chance, the draw 32% and SM Burzaco 33%, so D. Armenio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for D. Armenio and 1.1 for SM Burzaco (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Armenio are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.75 for SM Burzaco. This match finished 1-1.

D. Armenio vs SM Burzaco Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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