Today / Ukraine - Premier League / Polessya vs Obolon

Polessya vs Obolon Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:00

Polessya

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Obolon

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWL

// Model verdict

Home 79% chance

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-12.9%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.7%1-16.5%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.7%2-17.3%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.2%3-15.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-15.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.3% 83.3% 1.20 -19.2%

Draw 22.9% 21.1% 4.75 +8.8%

Away win 9.8% 5.9% 17.00 +66.6%

Over 2.5 51.2% 51.3% 1.95 -0.2%

Over 3.5 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -5.8%

BTTS 39.6% 34.5% 2.90 +14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 67% / xG 2.2-0.4 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.7%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 3–0 13.2%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 1–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polessya2.2

Obolon0.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POLESSYA · PPG 1.58

OBOLON · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

79%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.58) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Polessya (H) 67.3%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -19.2%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +8.8%

Obolon (A) 9.8%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +66.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polessya face Obolon in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polessya a 67% chance, the draw 23% and Obolon 10%, so Polessya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Polessya and 0.4 for Obolon (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polessya are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.17 for Obolon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +66.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Polessya vs Obolon Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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