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Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:00

Kudrivka

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Shakhtar

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Away 81% chance

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-110.9%0-214.0%0-312.1%0-4+14.4%1 1-02.5%1-16.4%1-28.2%1-37.1%1-4+8.5%2 2-00.7%2-11.9%2-22.4%2-32.1%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.7% 5.6% 18.00 +92.6%

Draw 23.4% 17.9% 5.60 +31.0%

Away win 65.9% 87.0% 1.15 -24.2%

Over 2.5 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Over 3.5 39.0% 42.0% 2.38 -7.2%

BTTS 49.5% 42.0% 2.38 +17.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob49.5%

A 66% / xG 0.6-2.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.0%

#2 0–3 12.1%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 0–4 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kudrivka0.6

Shakhtar2.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KUDRIVKA · PPG 1.33

SHAKHTAR · PPG 2.09

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

81%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.09) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Kudrivka (H) 10.7%

ODDS 18.00 · IMPLIED 5.6% EV +92.6%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +31.0%

Shakhtar (A) 65.9%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kudrivka face Shakhtar in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kudrivka a 11% chance, the draw 23% and Shakhtar 66%, so Shakhtar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Kudrivka and 2.6 for Shakhtar (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kudrivka are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.09 for Shakhtar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +92.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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