Today / Hungary - NB I / Ferencvaros vs Paks

Ferencvaros vs Paks Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:00

Ferencvaros

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Paks

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.6%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.4%1-110.2%1-27.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.1%3-15.7%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 70.4% 1.42 -36.0%

Draw 27.6% 22.5% 4.45 +22.8%

Away win 27.3% 16.1% 6.20 +69.3%

Over 2.5 59.0% 71.4% 1.40 -17.4%

Over 3.5 39.9% 50.0% 2.00 -20.2%

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

H 45% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0✓ 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferencvaros1.8

Paks1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FERENCVAROS · PPG 1.64

PAKS · PPG 1.47

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Ferencvaros (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -36.0%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +22.8%

Paks (A) 27.3%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +69.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferencvaros face Paks in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferencvaros a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Paks 27%, so Ferencvaros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ferencvaros and 1.4 for Paks (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferencvaros are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.47 for Paks. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +69.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Ferencvaros vs Paks Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

More Hungary - NB I Predictions