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Shturmi vs Gareji Sagarejo Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:00

Shturmi

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Gareji Sagarejo

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-033.4%0-111.8%0-22.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.8%1-18.8%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.2%2-13.3%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.3%3-10.8%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 47.6% 2.10 -21.9%

Draw 40.5% 32.3% 3.10 +25.6%

Away win 22.3% 31.3% 3.20 -28.6%

Over 2.5 24.2% 42.0% 2.38 -42.4%

Over 3.5 2.6% — — —

BTTS 29.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob29.7%

H 37% / xG 0.7-0.4 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 33.4%

#2 1–0 24.8%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shturmi0.7

Gareji Sagarejo0.4

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.2% · O3.5 PROB 2.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHTURMI · PPG 2.33

GAREJI SAGAREJO · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=37.2%

Win probability 1X2

Shturmi (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -21.9%

Draw 40.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +25.6%

Gareji Sagarejo (A) 22.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shturmi face Gareji Sagarejo in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shturmi a 37% chance, the draw 41% and Gareji Sagarejo 22%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Shturmi and 0.4 for Gareji Sagarejo (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shturmi are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Gareji Sagarejo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +25.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Shturmi vs Gareji Sagarejo Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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