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Southampton W vs Charlton W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:00

Southampton W

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Charlton W

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.40) vs Away GOOD (1.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.5%0-25.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.2%1-112.6%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-18.4%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.0%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 35.1% 2.85 +7.7%

Draw 32.7% 32.3% 3.10 +1.4%

Away win 29.5% 44.4% 2.25 -33.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Over 3.5 25.7% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 25.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.8%

D 33% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southampton W1.3

Charlton W1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHAMPTON W · PPG 1.40

CHARLTON W · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.40) vs Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Southampton W (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +7.7%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.4%

Charlton W (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southampton W face Charlton W in England - Women's Championship on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southampton W a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Charlton W 30%, so Southampton W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Southampton W and 1.2 for Charlton W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southampton W are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.80 for Charlton W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Southampton W vs Charlton W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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