Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Novi Pazar vs Cukaricki

Novi Pazar vs Cukaricki Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:30

Novi Pazar

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cukaricki

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 53% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.0%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.1%1-111.4%1-27.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.0%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 42.4% 2.36 +2.7%

Draw 28.4% 29.9% 3.35 -4.9%

Away win 28.1% 36.8% 2.72 -23.6%

Over 2.5 59.0% 50.0% 2.00 +18.0%

Over 3.5 32.6% 27.4% 3.65 +19.0%

BTTS 58.5% 56.5% 1.77 +3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novi Pazar1.6

Cukaricki1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVI PAZAR · PPG 1.69

CUKARICKI · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Novi Pazar (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +2.7%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.9%

Cukaricki (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novi Pazar face Cukaricki in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novi Pazar a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Cukaricki 28%, so Novi Pazar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Novi Pazar and 1.3 for Cukaricki (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novi Pazar are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.94 for Cukaricki. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Novi Pazar vs Cukaricki Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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