Penafiel vs FC Porto B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Portugal - Segunda Liga Regular Season - 31 Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril· Penafiel Sunday, April 26, 2026 14:30

Penafiel PPG 1.33

3-0 MISS

FC Porto B PPG 1.07

Draw· +4.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Penafiel face FC Porto B in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penafiel a 40% chance, the draw 33% and FC Porto B 27%, so Penafiel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Penafiel and 0.9 for FC Porto B (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penafiel are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.07 for FC Porto B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.9%

Odds: 2.22 EV: -11.4%

Draw 33.0%

Odds: 3.15 EV: +4.0%

Away 27.1%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -16.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: 2.00 -11.2%

Over 3.5 18.7% Odds: 3.55 -33.6%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.73 -9.0%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Penafiel

1.29

FC Porto B

0.95

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+4.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5/Under 45%

BTTS/No 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -45.7%

Bet Hit 30% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.07)