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Penafiel vs FC Porto B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:30

Penafiel

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Porto B

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-110.2%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.8%1-113.1%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-18.4%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.8%3-13.6%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 45.0% 2.22 -11.4%

Draw 33.0% 31.7% 3.15 +4.0%

Away win 27.1% 32.3% 3.10 -16.0%

Over 2.5 44.4% 50.0% 2.00 -11.2%

Over 3.5 18.7% 28.2% 3.55 -33.6%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 40% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penafiel1.3

FC Porto B0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAFIEL · PPG 1.33

FC PORTO B · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Penafiel (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -11.4%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +4.0%

FC Porto B (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penafiel face FC Porto B in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penafiel a 40% chance, the draw 33% and FC Porto B 27%, so Penafiel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Penafiel and 0.9 for FC Porto B (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penafiel are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.07 for FC Porto B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Penafiel vs FC Porto B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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