Sutjeska vs Jezero Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Montenegro - First League Regular Season - 31 Stadion Gradski Sunday, April 26, 2026 12:00

Sutjeska PPG 2.47

1-1 MISS

Jezero PPG 1.07

BTTS· +13.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutjeska face Jezero in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutjeska a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Jezero 12%, so Sutjeska are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Sutjeska and 0.7 for Jezero (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutjeska are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 1.07 for Jezero. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 65.8%

Odds: 1.36 EV: -10.5%

Draw 22.4%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -10.4%

Away 11.7%

Odds: 7.50 EV: -12.3%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 42.3% Odds: — —

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 2.15 +13.1%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sutjeska

2.63

Jezero

0.69

Model SuggestionHome -10.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -10.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: BTTS (+13.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -57.2%

Bet Hit 22% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.47), Away AVERAGE (1.07) - Strong consensus