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Sutjeska vs Jezero Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Sutjeska

PPG 2.47 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Jezero

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-12.5%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.5%1-16.6%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-18.6%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-17.6%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-19.3%4+-23.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Draw 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -10.4%

Away win 11.7% 13.3% 7.50 -12.3%

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 42.3% — — —

BTTS 52.6% 46.5% 2.15 +13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 66% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 3–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutjeska2.6

Jezero0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTJESKA · PPG 2.47

JEZERO · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.47), Away AVERAGE (1.07) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sutjeska (H) 65.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -10.5%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.4%

Jezero (A) 11.7%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutjeska face Jezero in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutjeska a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Jezero 12%, so Sutjeska are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Sutjeska and 0.7 for Jezero (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutjeska are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 1.07 for Jezero. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Sutjeska vs Jezero Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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