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Mladost DG vs Mornar Bar Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Mladost DG

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mornar Bar

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.9%0-25.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.0%1-111.6%1-28.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.5%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.1%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 25.0% 4.00 +50.4%

Draw 29.6% 32.3% 3.10 -8.2%

Away win 32.9% 57.1% 1.75 -42.4%

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 33.0% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 50.0% 2.00 +17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2✓ 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost DG1.5

Mornar Bar1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST DG · PPG 1.60

MORNAR BAR · PPG 1.53

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Mladost DG (H) 37.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +50.4%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.2%

Mornar Bar (A) 32.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -42.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost DG face Mornar Bar in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost DG a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Mornar Bar 33%, so Mladost DG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mladost DG and 1.4 for Mornar Bar (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost DG are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.53 for Mornar Bar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +50.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Mladost DG vs Mornar Bar Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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