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Ourense CF vs Zamora Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Ourense CF

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Zamora

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.7%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.0%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-14.9%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 41.7% 2.40 +11.1%

Draw 28.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.3%

Away win 25.4% 35.7% 2.80 -28.9%

Over 2.5 50.1% 40.8% 2.45 +22.8%

Over 3.5 25.6% 21.1% 4.75 +21.6%

BTTS 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ourense CF1.6

Zamora1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OURENSE CF · PPG 1.75

ZAMORA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Ourense CF (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +11.1%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.3%

Zamora (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ourense CF face Zamora in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ourense CF a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Zamora 25%, so Ourense CF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ourense CF and 1.0 for Zamora (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ourense CF are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Zamora. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Ourense CF vs Zamora Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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