Today / Smederevo vs Usce Novi B.

Smederevo vs Usce Novi B. Prediction

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Smederevo

PPG 1.63 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Usce Novi B.

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in GOOD form (1.63), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-13.2%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.1%1-17.0%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.8%2-17.8%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.4%3-15.8%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-15.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.3% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 9.8% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.3% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 67% / xG 2.2-0.5 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.8%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 3–0 12.4%

#4 1–1✓ 7.0%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smederevo2.2

Usce Novi B.0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SMEDEREVO · PPG 1.63

USCE NOVI B. · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.63), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Smederevo (H) 67.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Usce Novi B. (A) 9.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Smederevo face Usce Novi B. on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smederevo a 67% chance, the draw 23% and Usce Novi B. 10%, so Smederevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Smederevo and 0.5 for Usce Novi B. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smederevo are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.38 for Usce Novi B.. This match finished 1-1.

Smederevo vs Usce Novi B. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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